As October advances toward its final days, the Caribbean finds itself on alert due to the development of Tropical Storm Melissa, a system that meteorologists warn could escalate into a hurricane in the coming days. Positioned amid the warm, undisturbed waters of the eastern Caribbean, Melissa is poised to bring significant rainfall and vigorous winds to the region, threatening widespread flooding and wind damage.
Formation and Development
Tropical Storm Melissa originated as a tropical rainstorm just west of the Lesser Antilles and has been under close watch by AccuWeather experts since its initial formation. The favorable conditions for Melissa’s intensification include warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear — a combination that often encourages tropical storms to strengthen. AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva notes that the storm is "likely to further intensify into a named storm in the next few days," underscoring the potential for even stronger hurricane-force winds.
Projected Path and Impacted Areas
Melissa is expected to move slowly north or northwestward, passing over or near the mountainous island of Hispaniola — home to Haiti and the Dominican Republic — and it may even stall in this area temporarily. This slow movement is particularly concerning because it will subject the region to continuous rounds of heavy tropical rain pouring down for multiple days.
Rainfall across much of the Caribbean, including San Juan, Puerto Rico, is predicted to accumulate 1 to 2 inches under typical conditions. However, in the storm’s core zones such as Hispaniola, Cuba, and Jamaica, rainfall totals may surge dramatically, exceeding one foot in some areas. AccuWeather’s Local StormMax™ highlights the possibility of up to 30 inches of rain, posing a severe flooding risk.
Flood Risks and Environmental Concerns
Heavy, sustained rainfall over Haiti raises critical alarms. Due to significant deforestation and an already fragile ecological landscape, the country lacks sufficient tree cover to absorb such volumes of water. This situation intensifies the likelihood of devastating mudslides and life-threatening floods. The storm’s flooding potential places it at a level two threat on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes, signaling an elevated risk to life and property.
Wind Threats and Infrastructure Impact
Apart from rain, Tropical Storm Melissa’s winds are anticipated to cause widespread disruption. Wind gusts ranging from 40 to 60 mph are forecast to affect Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba starting Thursday, with stronger gusts near the shore potentially reaching 60 to 80 mph, and localized gusts up to 100 mph. These winds could down trees, topple power lines, and inflict structural damage, leading to prolonged power outages in the hardest-hit zones.
Potential Track Beyond the Caribbean
Looking ahead, Melissa’s path beyond the Caribbean remains uncertain but is heavily influenced by atmospheric conditions like the position and strength of the jet stream. While current forecasts indicate a low chance of the storm directly impacting the U.S. mainland, forecasters caution that a western Caribbean track could change the situation, placing parts of the southeastern United States, including Florida, at risk.
Historical precedents such as Hurricane Wilma in 2005 and Hurricane Michael in 2018 illustrate how storms in this region late in the season can rapidly intensify and cause significant damage along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts.
Conclusion and Vigilance Reminder
Though the Atlantic hurricane season officially winds down in mid-November, meteorologists emphasize that tropical activity can persist. The return of La Niña conditions this season may sustain atmospheric patterns favorable for storms like Melissa to develop.
Residents and officials across the Caribbean and southeastern U.S. are urged not to let their guard down and to stay informed through trusted weather updates and alerts. Melissa’s progression over the next several days will be critical to monitor as it carries the potential for life-threatening flooding and damaging winds well into late October.
Stay prepared and follow updates from official meteorological sources as Tropical Storm Melissa continues its development and potential impact on the Caribbean region.
